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The power challenge in the Permian: assessment and forecast of electric load for oil and gas operations in West Texas

April 1, 2022 9:00 AM

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Meeting ID 958 7119 6935
Passcode 941256

Presenter

Ning Lin, Ph.D.
Program Manager – Chief Economist
Bureau of Economic Geology
Jackson School of Geosciences
The University of Texas at Austin

 

Description

Load growth in Far West Texas zone of ERCOT has been driven largely by the production growth in the Permian in recent years, and it has presented a unique challenge to ERCOT. Due to the inherent different time cycles of operations in oil and gas activities within tight oil plays compared to electric transmission infrastructure, it is crucial for ERCOT and its stakeholders to understand the long-term production outlook and operation activities footprint for an adequate transmission network in the area.

This study is requested by ERCOT to develop bottom-up methodology in forecasting oil and gas related load into the future for West Texas part of the Permian, leveraging TORA oil and gas research work. This study investigated the electric load for operation activities of upstream and midstream in the Permian, and developed a modeling methodology to produce locational based electric load forecast. Findings contained in this study estimated load covering the period of the year 2012 to the year 2035, in the study area, which spans 18 counties in the Texas portion of the Permian Basin. This study offers three scenarios of load forecasts for the forecasted period, 2021 through 2035, to reflect the range of possibilities of market conditions and decarbonization trends.

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