From Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin (
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2003 SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Dallas, April 69, 2003

Integrated Prospect Portfolio Management for 3-D Seismic Volumes Combining Geologic, Engineering, and Economic Risk

Mark H. Holtz


This paper describes a practical methodology that links probabilistic play analysis, volumetric calculations, and economical evaluation to portfolio optimization using information from a 3-D seismic cube. In order that geologic chance of success might be calculated using a new probabilistic risking scale, a description of the geological framework is presented both in terms of play characteristics and the dependence on setting between geologic risk factors.

A new geologic probabilistic risking scale was developed that adds standardization to the Monte Carlo simulation of geologic probability of success. This scale improves on previous methods by taking into account the uncertainty in judgment, as well as the quantity and quality of available information.