The study, conducted by the Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at The University of Texas at Austin, and funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, integrates engineering, geology and economics in a numerical model that allows for scenario testing based on many input parameters. The overall study, to be completed soon, will investigate production from four major U.S. shale formations: Barnett, Fayetteville, Haynesville and Marcellus. The Barnett and Fayetteville portions of the study have been completed.
In the base case of the Barnett, the study forecasts a cumulative 44 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of recoverable reserves, with annual production declining in a predictable curve from the current peak of 2 TCF per year to about 900 billion cubic feet (BCF) per year by 2030. A summary report on the Barnett portion of the study has been peer-reviewed and published in two parts in the Oil and Gas Journal (August and September, 2013; posted below as Parts 1 and 2)
Drawing on production data from all of the individual wells drilled in the Fayetteville Shale from 2005-2011, the BEG assessment estimates technically recoverable gas reserves for the region at 38 Tcf, of which 18.2 Tcf will be economically feasible to recover at natural gas prices near $4 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) through 2050. A summary report on the Fayetteville portion of the study has been peer-reviewed and published in in the Oil and Gas Journal (January, 2014; posted below).