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US Shale Reserves and Production

BEG - Sloan Foundation Shale Gas Assessment Study

The study, conducted by the Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at The University of Texas at Austin, and funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, integrates engineering, geology and economics in a numerical model that allows for scenario testing based on many input parameters. The overall study, to be completed soon, will investigate production from four major U.S. shale formations: Barnett, Fayetteville, Haynesville and Marcellus. The Barnett and Fayetteville portions of the study have been completed.

In the base case of the Barnett, the study forecasts a cumulative 44 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of recoverable reserves, with annual production declining in a predictable curve from the current peak of 2 TCF per year to about 900 billion cubic feet (BCF) per year by 2030. A summary report on the Barnett portion of the study has been peer-reviewed and published in two parts in the Oil and Gas Journal (August and September, 2013; posted below as Parts 1 and 2)

Drawing on production data from all of the individual wells drilled in the Fayetteville Shale from 2005-2011, the BEG assessment estimates technically recoverable gas reserves for the region at 38 Tcf, of which 18.2 Tcf will be economically feasible to recover at natural gas prices near $4 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) through 2050. A summary report on the Fayetteville portion of the study has been peer-reviewed and published in in the Oil and Gas Journal (January, 2014; posted below).

OIL & GAS JOURNAL Sloan Foundation Shale Gas Assessment Study - Part 1

OIL & GAS JOURNAL Sloan Foundation Shale Gas Assessment Study - Part 2

OIL & GAS JOURNAL Sloan Foundation Fayetteville Shale Gas Assessment Study

Published Manuscripts

Aspects of the Sloan Foundation study concerning the Barnett Shale have been set out in five separate manuscripts which are in various stages of peer review and publication. Those now in publication include:

1. Browning, J., Ikonnikova, S., Gülen, G., Tinker S., et al. 2013. Barnett Shale Production Outlook. SPE Econ & Mgmt 5 (3): 89-104. SPE-165585-PA. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/165585-PA.
Available for purchase at:
http://www.spe.org/ejournals/jsp/journalapp.jsp?pageType=Preview&jid=EEM&mid=SPE-165585-PA&pdfChronicleId=0901476280298206

2. Gülen G, Browning J, Ikonnikova S, Tinker S, Well economics across ten tiers in low and high Btu (British thermal unit) areas, Barnett Shale, Texas, Energy (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.07.041
Available for purchase at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213006464

3. Tad W. Patzek, Frank Male, and Michael Marder Gas production in the Barnett Shale obeys a simple scaling theory PNAS 2013 110 (49) 19731-19736; published ahead of print November 18, 2013, doi:10.1073/pnas.1313380110
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/49/19731.full.pdf+html?sid=7451526e-edf0-492e-bde1-00d9d65abcbe

Information regarding the initial Barnett Shale Gas Assessment Study Press Release and FAQ, February 2013


 

BEG - Sloan Foundation Shale Gas Assessment Study Research Team

This research was conducted within the Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG), Jackson School of Geosciences, the University of Texas at Austin. This study is part of a program funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation called ``Role of Shale Gas in the U.S. Energy Transition: Recoverable Resources, Production Rates, and Implications." The research team includes Scott W. Tinker (Principal Investigator), Svetlana A. Ikonnikova (Co-Principal Investigator), John Browning, William L. Fisher, Qilong Fu, Gürcan Gülen, Susan Horvath, Frank Male, Ken Medlock III, Tad Patzek, Eric Potter, Forrest Roberts, Likeleli Seitlheko and Katie Smye. We thank IHS and DrillingInfo for access to their databases. Potential Conflicts of Interest for team members follow.

    Potential Conflict of Interest Information

 


Questions? Contact Mark Blount


 
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