North, South, Texas, and the Rest
CEE 2013 Annual Meeting: Houston Branch - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Conference Center
December 4-5, 2013
CEE's annual meeting for 2013 focused on North American energy issues as a platform for linking past CEE research in this arena with new questions and debates. The conference brought together leading and provocative viewpoints on the Canadian, Mexican, and U.S. energy situations, as well as perspectives from abroad as U.S. energy output and trade impact global flows and trigger rethinking about possible outcomes. CEE activities and publications during 2014 will reflect many of the themes introduced during the December conference, ranging from economic impacts of U.S. and North American energy production and utilization to perspectives on infrastructure advancement and continental and global trade flows.
- December 4
- 9:00- 10:00am: Welcome and Introductions: "What Keeps Me up at Night" Annual Brainstorming
Michelle Michot Foss, CEE - 10:15- 12:15pm: North: "O[h] Canada!"
- Robert Skinner, Kimacal/CSEE/U Calgary/CEE Global Advisors
- John Foran, Director/Directeur, Oil & Gas Policy & Regulatory Affairs Division/Division des politiques et des affaires reglementaires du pétrole et du gaz NRCan/RNCan
- Ian Duncan, BEG, Scientist- Earth Systems and Environment
(Note that article for download appeared in the journal Water, August 2013. While it is directed to Australian unconventional resources many of the considerations discussed during the CEE annual meeting are addressed.) - Michelle Michot Foss, Chief Energy Economist/Program Manager-CEE, review of past CEE research, North American Energy Integration
- 12:15- 1:30pm: Texas: "Miles and Miles..."
- FRBD-Houston Welcome – Daron Peschel, Vice President in Charge
- Introductions, Eric Potter, Assistant Director-Energy, BEG
- Honorable Susan Combs, Comptroller of Public Accounts, State of Texas
- Bill Gilmer, UH Center for Regional Forecasting
- Gürcan Gülen, Senior Energy Economist-CEE; Michelle Michot Foss; Deniese Palmer-Huggins, Senior Energy Advisor-CEE; Xinya Zhang, Post-doctoral Researcher-CEE: midstream/industrial research and economic effects
- 3:30-5:30pm: The Rest: "Global Energy Views"
- Marianne Kah, Chief Economist, ConocoPhillips, U.S. oil production and exports
- Lou Pugliaresi/Ben Montalbano, EPRINC, U.S. exports and Asian demand
- Jonathan Stern, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, European gas pricing
- Howard Rogers, OIES, global LNG
- Jim Henderson, OIES, Russia Gas
- Deniese Palmer-Huggins, Michelle Michot Foss, CEE: U.S. oil and gas export regulatory pathway (joint work with EPRINC)
- 6:30-8:00pm: CEE Donor/Advisors Dinner
- Vicky Bailey, BHMM Energy Services, CEE Global Advisors
- 9:00- 10:00am: Welcome and Introductions: "What Keeps Me up at Night" Annual Brainstorming
- December 5
- 9:00-11:00am: South: "México Lindo y Querido"
- Ernesto Marcos, Marcos y Asociados/CEE Global Advisors
- Miriam Grunstein, CIDE
- CEE: Mexico views and worldwide upstream regimes
- 11:15-2:00pm: "Up at Night" Workshop
- Gürcan Gülen, CEE, gas-power research
- Ed Kelly, CEE Analytics/Modeling Advisors, commentary
- Charles Rossmann,Southern Company, corporate planning perspective: “System 1 and 2” thinking and corporate strategic challenges
- Facilitation assistance – Les Deman and Don Knope, CEE Analytics and Modeling Advisors
- Adjourn
- 9:00-11:00am: South: "México Lindo y Querido"
BEG/CEE Personnel for Meeting:
Michelle Michot Foss, Chief Energy Economist/Program Manager, CEE
Gürcan Gülen, Senior Energy Economist, Research Associate/Research Scientist
Xinya Zhang, Post-doctoral Researcher
Deniese Palmer- Huggins, Senior Energy Advisor
Miranda Ferrell Wainberg, Senior Energy Advisor
Kristin Batres, Administrative Assistant/Coordinator
Isis Gaber, UT Post-baccalaureate Researcher
Eric Potter, BEG Associate Director – Energy
Ian Duncan, BEG, Scientist-Earth Systems and Environment
CEE Advisory Councils:
Vicky Bailey, BHMM
Hal Chappelle, Alta Mesa
Les Deman, Consultant
Juan Eibenschutz, CNSNS-Mexico
Herman Franssen, Energy Intelligence Group
Bill Gilmer, University of Houston
Luis Giusti, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ed Kelly, IHS Energy
Dave Knapp, EIG
Don Knop, Consultant
Ernesto Marcos, Marcos y Asociados
Rae McQuade, North American Energy Standards Board
Ed Morse, Citibank
Bob Skinner, Canadian School for Energy & Environment
Bruce Stram, Element Markets
Terence Thorn, Consultant
We thank our donors:
- CenterPoint Energy
- Chevron Corporation (Global Gas and Africa/Latin America)
- Exelon Energy Corporation
- ExxonMobil
- Ernst & Young
- Frost Bank
- Haddington Ventures
- McKinsey & Company
- Methanol Holding Company of Trinidad & Tobago
- Southern Company
- State of Texas Advanced Resource Recovery Program/Office of the Comptroller
- SUEZ Energy North America
- UT Jackson School of Geosciences Endowment
- UT McCombs Executive Education Program Sponsors: UT-Petrobras, UT-ExxonMobil Upstream Commercial Overview, UT-Sinopec
A Special Think Day: Mid-Year Review
Building Out the New Oil, Gas, and Power Value Chains
Getting to Specifics from the Big Picture: A Research Forum for Energy Futures and Strategies
June 7, 2013
Michelle Michot Foss, Ph.D.
Chief Energy Economist and Head
- June 7
- Welcome and Update: CEE's analytics/modeling program goals and objectives
Michelle Michot Foss, CEE - Unconventional Resource Assessment
- BEG's Sloan Foundation Study Update and Release [addtional]
Eric Potter, BEG Associate Director/Energy, John Browning, and Gürcan Gülen - Upstream Attainment
- Producer Challenges and Benchmarking- 2012 update and look ahead
- Observations from IEA-WEO Tight Oil workshop, Paris April 30
Michelle Michot Foss, CEE & Miranda L. Wainberg - Midstream
- Midstreram Attainment, Operator Challenges, Market Implications
Michelle Michot Foss, CEE & Deniese Palmer-Huggins - Luncheon brainstorming- reactions to morning session
- Observations from LNG 17
Michelle Michot Foss, CEE - Electric Power Review and Discussion
- Gas use in power: New results from research on resource adequacy in Texas and other power sector issues
Gürcan Gülen, BEG/CEE & Michael Soni - Hot Topic: Electricity Demand- Growing or Not?
Open Discussion
- Welcome and Update: CEE's analytics/modeling program goals and objectives
Monitoring U.S./Global Oil and Gas: National Oil Company Upstream Cost Structure and Implications of Lower Oil Prices
Michelle M. Foss, Miranda Wainberg - January 2013
Do the shifting views on U.S. oil and gas supply and "energy independence" make sense given the prevailing cost structure embedded in the global oil industry? What are the constraints and reality checks? On the optimistic side, what are some "paradigm busters" that could accelerate a re-shaping of the global cost curve? And how would such an eventuality – abundant, lower cost, cheaper oil – sit with the very strong, almost cultural, push away from fossil fuels that has been unfolding over the past decades? A dramatic scale up in liquid hydrocarbon supply supported by an historic reduction in cost and with distinct benefits in lower price and energy affordability would challenge core assumptions ranging from climate to the notions of "peak oil". These are provocative ideas, certainly, and may have some real probability (as yet undefined) of being realized. Such a major shift in reality and strong departure from established norms would pose direct consequences to a prominent segment of the global oil and gas industry – national oil companies (NOCs). NOCs, either wholly- or partially-owned by their sovereign governments, command the larger share of global oil proved reserves (about two-thirds). They are the gatekeepers to reserves and resources that are converted to production to meet daily global needs. In this research note, we present early results from our updated benchmarking of NOC costs for a limited sample of the best reporting NOCs. Our bottom line – an average, weighted breakeven cost of $83-100 per barrel for NOCs in this sample – suggests either substantial adjustments ahead for these organizations and their governments or a reality check on what can be achieved and expected for global oil supply and prices going forward.
A Primer on The Resource Adequacy Debate in Texas
Gürcan Gülen - January 2013
What is the concern? Texas population and economy has been growing fast, fueling significant growth in demand for electricity. Some are concerned about the ability of the competitive electricity market to provide sufficient incentives for investors to build enough generation capacity and/or consumers to reduce consumption when needed (during hot summer afternoons) so that the Texas economy have enough electricity to continue to grow at a healthy pace. The extremely hot summer of 2011 enhanced these concerns; on August 3, 2011 when a new record for electricity consumption in Texas was set, the grid operator, ERCOT, had to cut power to large industrial users, most of whom volunteered to provide such demand response services in exchange for some compensation, and procured emergency power from neighboring grids. Otherwise, operations were mostly normal and in summer of 2012, there were no similar extreme conditions.
In this primer, we provide easy-to-understand answers to most commonly asked questions and potential points of confusion. As the debates are ongoing, we look forward to feedback and updates to incorporate into this primer.